The risk is that a hotter-than-expected June inflation report — one that Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently called among the most important for assessing the impact of tariffs — could slow the pace at which the central bank lowers interest rates. Importantly, that could also throw a wrench into the stock market’s record-setting rally.

U.S. consumer prices likely picked up in June, potentially marking the start of a long-anticipated, tariff-induced increase in inflation that has left the Federal Reserve cautious about resuming its interest rate cuts.

Consumer inflation likely accelerated in June, as the Trump administration's tariffs start to push up prices. The Labor Department's consumer-price index for last month is due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Year-over-year inflation likely picked up to 2.