What the heck does the forbidding phrase "reduced form Bayesian VAR" mean? Let's break this down. The VAR in question isn't VaR (Value at Risk). It's Vector Autoregression. This is a stochastic ...

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those ...

Our eLibrary offers over 25,000 IMF publications in multiple formats. We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes ...

This paper investigates spillovers between electricity supply shocks and US growth, using monthly data from forty-eight US states from January 2001 to September 2016, and employs a novel strategy for ...

As usual, this issue of The Journal of Risk Model Validation consists of four papers: two papers on stress testing and two regional analyses. We are delighted to include an analysis of the BRICS ...