The chart above shows University of Oregon economics professor Jeremy Piger’s “Recession Probability Index” from 2000 to January 2008, based on the 4 monthly variables used by the NBER to determine ...

Please provide your email address to receive an email when new articles are posted on . Researchers have used machine learning to develop and validate a new model that can produce individualized risk ...

In preparation for our course in March, please read through these ten pages of notes. The (optional) material below comes from a five-week course on "probability" which I teach at Kellogg. Please feel ...